Atlantic Nino/Nina

The 2025 hurricane season has been quiet so far with four extremely short-lived storms. A quiet (or active) start to any season always brings the question, will the rest of the season continue this way? One way to try and answer this is by looking at patterns of ocean temperature around the world. While El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions in the Pacific often draw significant attention, there is a similar phenomenon in the Atlantic, referred to as Atlantic Niño/Niña, that also impacts hurricane risk. Notably, the Atlantic Niño/Niña region has experienced significant cooling over recent months, now aligning with La Niña conditions. This cooling may reduce hurricane risk by limiting the formation of hurricane seed storms off the African coast.

The possibility of this pattern was indicated as early as January, when forecasts suggested that Atlantic La Niña conditions could emerge during the hurricane season, albeit there was considerable uncertainty. It remains uncertain whether these Atlantic La Niña conditions will persist throughout the season or significantly influence it given the multitude of variables that impact hurricanes including the Madden-Julian Oscillation, steering flows, and Main Development Region temperatures. Nonetheless, it will be an interesting substory as the hurricane season progresses toward its peak.