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August Hurricane Forecasts

February 13, 2024

We’re getting to the time of year when seasonal forecasts extend into the hurricane season. Whilst no model forecast should ever be taken as gospel, it’s interesting to note how the warm start to the year might be impacting forecasts. Shown here are three seasonal forecast models with multiple “ensembles” run to understand the uncertainty in our meteorological future.

We’re plotting here the Atlantic Main Development Region (where a fair chunk of Atlantic landfalling hurricanes pass) August sea-surface temperature forecast from three seasonal forecast models compared with re-run forecasts in previous years. What stands out clearly here is that all three models are forecasting seemingly the warmest August in recent history, irrespective of whether previous forecasts were accurate.

Certainly food for thought when there’s also a La Nina forecast – this and a warm Atlantic is potentially a potent combination. It’s not a guarantee of a busy hurricane season, but it does load the die somewhat and it’s clear the lingering warmth in the seas from last year could have an ongoing impact on this year’s hurricane season.

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