California Wildfire – Similar Forecasts with Different Uncertainties

Summary maps from the National Interagency Fire Center’s wildfire outlooks for January 2025 and January 2026 look strikingly similar. Released on December 1st, each map forecasts wildfire risk for the upcoming January. Given that Los Angeles experienced the most destructive wildfires on record in January 2025, the designation of ‘normal’ risk in December 2024 may seem unexpected and fuel speculation about this year’s risk.

But the underlying conditions tell a different story. The end of 2024 was exceptionally dry, yet December is often a wet month in Los Angeles. As a result, the January 2025 outlook included this caveat: “However, if there are no significant precipitation events in December, there is a chance for January to continue to lean toward above normal significant fire potential for the South Coast Predictive Service Area [Southern California] in the next outlook.”

This year, in contrast, Los Angeles has already received more than 400% of its typical August–December rainfall. Fortunately, this year’s prediction doesn’t rely on rains we assume are coming, they have already arrived.