Seasonal Hurricane Forecast – May Update

June 1^st is right around the corner, and with it the start of the Atlantic hurricane season. When we issued our seasonal outlook in March, we forecast slightly above average activity for the upcoming season. Since then, ocean temperatures in the Atlantic have continued to cool from their 2023 and 2024 peak (1st image). This is good news for 2025 hurricane risk as cooler ocean temperatures mean less fuel for hurricanes.

We can translate what the recent cooling in the Atlantic means for hurricane risk using Inigo’s in-house model. Our model updates each month and forecasts ACE west of 60° longitude (ACE 60W). ACE 60W is a measure of total hurricane activity in the western part of the Atlantic Ocean, and our work has found this metric is connected to economic and insured hurricane losses in the US. Our model was forecasting an above average season for much of the early part of 2025, but has backed off those predictions in the latest May update (2nd image).  No prediction is perfect, but hopefully 2025 is quieter than the 2024 hurricane season.