The El Niño fingerprint on natural catastrophe risk around the world

With a potentially “super” El Niño brewing in the Pacific, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has become one of the most talked-about topics in the (re)insurance world. In our latest Catastrophe Research Pack, we break down how El Niño and its counterpart La Niña shape natural peril activity worldwide, from hurricanes and convective storms to wildfires and floods.

Viewed globally, both phases are a double-edged sword. El Niño tends to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity, reduce severe convective storm frequency and lower wildfire risk in California; but on the other side of the Pacific, the same conditions bring heightened typhoon risk in Japan and greater drought and wildfire exposure across Australia. La Niña presents its own trade-offs: a more active Atlantic hurricane season and elevated flood risk in South-East Asia and Australia.

For insurers and risk professionals, the message is that ENSO redistributes risk rather than making the world a more or less dangerous place, and understanding those shifts is where the opportunity lies. With a strong El Niño event on the horizon, we’ve been exploring the implications across a series of dedicated articles on our catastrophe research page, and this pack brings that thinking together in one place. See the full ENSO Research Pack here.