Wildfire Whiplash – sudden shifts with painful consequences.

Wildfire Whiplash – sudden shifts with painful consequences.

Rapid transitions between wet and dry conditions can increase frequency and severity of natural catastrophes like flash flooding or wildfires. The unprecedented wildfires that have devastated Los Angeles County are, in part, a result of this phenomenon. The figure below shows cumulative precipitation data recorded by a rain gauge in downtown LA since 1907. After two exceptionally wet seasons in 2022/23 and 2023/24 (blue lines), the LA hills experienced an explosion of grass and brush growth. However, since then Los Angeles has endured its second driest June to January on record (red line), desiccating the landscape and creating a highly flammable tinderbox environment. The combination of this abundant fuel, alongside strong winds and ignitions has led to the most destructive wildfire season ever recorded.

Inigo has established a partnership with climate scientist Daniel Swain (UC ANR & UCLA) to better understand US wildfire seasonality and associated risks. His latest publication on ‘hydroclimactic whiplash’ is extremely timely and an excellent summary of it can be found on his website – Hydroclimate volatility on a warming Earth – Weather West.