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California Wildfire – Similar Forecasts with Different Uncertainties

2 December 2025
Summary maps from the National Interagency Fire Center’s wildfire outlooks for January 2025 and January 2026 look strikingly similar. Released on ...
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NEWS

2025 Hurricane Season Retrospective

1 December 2025
by Charles Powell (University of Cambridge) and Ruth Petrie  The 2025 hurricane season was defined by extended periods of suppressed tropical ...
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Australia’s Natural Catastrophe Forecast

25 September 2025
Australia is about to enter its peak risk period for extreme weather, spanning October to April, when bushfires, cyclones, and floods are most ...
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The warming Mediterranean and implications for hail risk

8 September 2025
The Mediterranean Sea has warmed rapidly in recent years (Copernicus Marine Service). In new research using climate model simulations, I work with ...
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Atlantic Nino/Nina

4 August 2025
The 2025 hurricane season has been quiet so far with four extremely short-lived storms. A quiet (or active) start to any season always brings the ...
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UK Wildfire Risk

15 July 2025
Last night, a 30,000 m2 wildfire broke out in the Walthamstow Wetlands – close enough to my home that I could hear sirens as fire crews worked ...
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Elevated hurricane risk for 2025 as a warm Atlantic and weak La Niña conditions align

6 June 2025
Predicted conditions for the 2025 hurricane season include above average Atlantic sea surface temperatures and neutral to weak La Niña conditions in ...
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Wildfire Vulnerability – You’re as Safe as Your Weakest Link

19 May 2025
In wildfires, buildings are only as resilient as their most vulnerable features. It’s often assumed that homes with metal roofs will perform better ...
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Seasonal Hurricane Forecast – May Update

16 May 2025
June 1st is right around the corner, and with it the start of the Atlantic hurricane season. When we issued our seasonal outlook in March, we ...
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Main Development Region SST Forecasts

11 March 2025
As winter turns to spring, flowers begin to bloom and seasonal hurricane forecasts are about to be released. There will be a lot of seasonal ...
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