The El Niño fingerprint on natural catastrophe risk around the world 6 July 2026 With a potentially “super” El Niño brewing in the Pacific, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has become one of the most ... Read
The story of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season begins with El Niño 4 June 2026 As ever, each hurricane season has its own story to tell. The story of the 2026 season looks set to be dominated by the development of a strong to ... Read
California Wildfire – Similar Forecasts with Different Uncertainties 2 December 2025 Summary maps from the National Interagency Fire Center’s wildfire outlooks for January 2025 and January 2026 look strikingly similar. Released on ... Read
2025 Hurricane Season Retrospective 1 December 2025 by Charles Powell (University of Cambridge) and Ruth Petrie The 2025 hurricane season was defined by extended periods of suppressed tropical ... Read
Australia’s Natural Catastrophe Forecast 25 September 2025 Australia is about to enter its peak risk period for extreme weather, spanning October to April, when bushfires, cyclones, and floods are most ... Read
The warming Mediterranean and implications for hail risk 8 September 2025 The Mediterranean Sea has warmed rapidly in recent years (Copernicus Marine Service). In new research using climate model simulations, I work with ... Read
Atlantic Nino/Nina 4 August 2025 The 2025 hurricane season has been quiet so far with four extremely short-lived storms. A quiet (or active) start to any season always brings the ... Read
UK Wildfire Risk 15 July 2025 Last night, a 30,000 m2 wildfire broke out in the Walthamstow Wetlands – close enough to my home that I could hear sirens as fire crews worked ... Read
Elevated hurricane risk for 2025 as a warm Atlantic and weak La Niña conditions align 6 June 2025 Predicted conditions for the 2025 hurricane season include above average Atlantic sea surface temperatures and neutral to weak La Niña conditions in ... Read
Wildfire Vulnerability – You’re as Safe as Your Weakest Link 19 May 2025 In wildfires, buildings are only as resilient as their most vulnerable features. It’s often assumed that homes with metal roofs will perform better ... Read
