August Hurricane Forecasts 13 February 2024 We’re getting to the time of year when seasonal forecasts extend into the hurricane season. Whilst no model forecast should ever be taken as ... Read
ENSO: This year and next year 28 December 2023 There’s an interesting behaviour in ENSO activity when we have an El Nino present during the hurricane season. What we tend to find is that ... Read
2023 Tropical Cyclone Activity 22 November 2023 As the 2023 tropical season in the Northern Hemisphere draws to a close, it is timely to consider how this year’s activity stacks up. This year has ... Read
Otis and the bigger sea temperature picture 30 October 2023 As an additional follow-up on the previous post regarding Otis, you may recall it seems as though the sort of sea surface warmth we saw that Otis ... Read
Otis in a warm sea year 25 October 2023 Otis’ remarkable unforecasted rapid deepening reminds us how difficult it still it to prognose the intensity of systems even if we are getting ... Read
Classifying wildfires 16 October 2023 Climate change is leading to changes in wildfires. As the temperature increases, so conditions become drier and more supportive of longer and more ... Read
El Nino’s Impact on Winter Storm Losses 12 October 2023 With the ongoing El Nino causing so much discussion around how it might impact this summer’s hurricane season (more about that here) – we ... Read
Tropical Depression 15’s Europe Threat 17 September 2023 The animation shown here is one of 50 forecasts from Saturday 17th run by the ECMWF every 12 hours to help us understand uncertainty in weather ... Read
El Nino: Update 13 September 2023 In this year’s unique hurricane season, we have a “Battle Royale” between the warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and the developing ... Read
Hurricane landfall rates 6 September 2023 Hurricane Idalia makes it four seasons in a row with a major hurricane landfall. It gives us a chance to have a look at how major (Cat 3+) hurricane ... Read
