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Hurricane Beryl

1 July 2024
On the 30th of June 2024 Hurricane Beryl entered the history books as the only Category 4 hurricane to form in June. On the 28th of June at 18:00 ...
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US hurricane 2024 landfall risk

9 May 2024
The 2024 hurricane season is fast approaching, and expectations are set for heightened activity due to warm sea surface temperatures across the ...
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Activity by ENSO and SST

3 April 2024
Two key factors that play a significant role in shaping the frequency and intensity of Atlantic hurricanes are the sea surface temperatures (SST) in ...
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August Hurricane Forecasts

13 February 2024
We’re getting to the time of year when seasonal forecasts extend into the hurricane season. Whilst no model forecast should ever be taken as ...
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ENSO: This year and next year

28 December 2023
There’s an interesting behaviour in ENSO activity when we have an El Nino present during the hurricane season. What we tend to find is that ...
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2023 Tropical Cyclone Activity

22 November 2023
As the 2023 tropical season in the Northern Hemisphere draws to a close, it is timely to consider how this year’s activity stacks up. This year has ...
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Otis and the bigger sea temperature picture

30 October 2023
As an additional follow-up on the previous post regarding Otis, you may recall it seems as though the sort of sea surface warmth we saw that Otis ...
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Otis in a warm sea year

25 October 2023
Otis’ remarkable unforecasted rapid deepening reminds us how difficult it still it to prognose the intensity of systems even if we are getting ...
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Classifying wildfires

16 October 2023
Climate change is leading to changes in wildfires. As the temperature increases, so conditions become drier and more supportive of longer and more ...
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El Nino’s Impact on Winter Storm Losses

12 October 2023
With the ongoing El Nino causing so much discussion around how it might impact this summer’s hurricane season (more about that here) – we ...
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