A letter from Richard Watson
January 31, 2024
Welcome to 2024
What derails Governments?
“Events my dear boy, events”
Harold MacMillan had it spot on for Governments, and of course, insurance companies and their customers.
2024 has started in an active fashion as far as events go:
- Iran sends missiles into Pakistan, Syria and Northern Iraq and into the Red Sea, via the Houthi rebels.
- Taiwan elects Lai Ching-te.
- Trump wins the primaries in Iowa.
- Japan has an earthquake.
- Ukraine stalls on the battlefield without the weapons to win.
That’s on top of the world’s major economies remaining on a knife edge of inflation/high interest rates and low economic growth. Throw in national elections in 64 countries (plus the European Union), climate change, mass migration, artificial intelligence, and another El Nino year and “events, dear boy” can all be expected.
As always, our job is to predict which ones, when and what the fall out will be.
While that is far from straight-forward, it’s also one of the reasons we have such an intriguing job – there aren’t many industries, where you are obliged to have view on these things, AND be prepared to risk money on them.
Inigo will be looking to develop our understanding of these events, by resourcing our in-house experts and enhancing their perspective by drawing on some of the world’s leading academics on these subjects.
We will continue to play-back to our customers, how we think their businesses will be at risk from these events and how we can help to mitigate it.
2024 will see significant progress on how we engage with our customers, building our position as a valued business partner – not just one half of a transaction. We will focus on the near term effects of climate change and artificial intelligence. Long term predictions are hard and rarely proven right, and while you can’t ignore them, so much of what our customers need is, in reality, help in predicting the next 12-24 months.
We deal with some fantastic customers, and in an increasingly uncertain world, our job is an important one, and in high demand. The first three years have been great fun – we have built the infrastructure, the teams and the brand. 2024 will be exciting in seeing all of this deliver the results and the services our customers need.
