9 May 2024

US hurricane 2024 landfall risk

The 2024 hurricane season is fast approaching, and expectations are set for heightened activity due to warm sea surface temperatures across the ...
3 April 2024

Activity by ENSO and SST

Two key factors that play a significant role in shaping the frequency and intensity of Atlantic hurricanes are the sea surface temperatures (SST) in ...
13 February 2024

August Hurricane Forecasts

We’re getting to the time of year when seasonal forecasts extend into the hurricane season. Whilst no model forecast should ever be taken as ...
28 December 2023

ENSO: This year and next year

There’s an interesting behaviour in ENSO activity when we have an El Nino present during the hurricane season. What we tend to find is that ...
22 November 2023

2023 Tropical Cyclone Activity

As the 2023 tropical season in the Northern Hemisphere draws to a close, it is timely to consider how this year’s activity stacks up. This year has ...
30 October 2023

Otis and the bigger sea temperature picture

As an additional follow-up on the previous post regarding Otis, you may recall it seems as though the sort of sea surface warmth we saw that Otis ...
25 October 2023

Otis in a warm sea year

Otis’ remarkable unforecasted rapid deepening reminds us how difficult it still it to prognose the intensity of systems even if we are getting ...
16 October 2023

Classifying wildfires

Climate change is leading to changes in wildfires. As the temperature increases, so conditions become drier and more supportive of longer and more ...
12 October 2023

El Nino’s Impact on Winter Storm Losses

With the ongoing El Nino causing so much discussion around how it might impact this summer’s hurricane season (more about that here) – we ...