13 February 2024

August Hurricane Forecasts

We’re getting to the time of year when seasonal forecasts extend into the hurricane season. Whilst no model forecast should ever be taken as ...
28 December 2023

ENSO: This year and next year

There’s an interesting behaviour in ENSO activity when we have an El Nino present during the hurricane season. What we tend to find is that ...
22 November 2023

2023 Tropical Cyclone Activity

As the 2023 tropical season in the Northern Hemisphere draws to a close, it is timely to consider how this year’s activity stacks up. This year has ...
30 October 2023

Otis and the bigger sea temperature picture

As an additional follow-up on the previous post regarding Otis, you may recall it seems as though the sort of sea surface warmth we saw that Otis ...
25 October 2023

Otis in a warm sea year

Otis’ remarkable unforecasted rapid deepening reminds us how difficult it still it to prognose the intensity of systems even if we are getting ...
16 October 2023

Classifying wildfires

Climate change is leading to changes in wildfires. As the temperature increases, so conditions become drier and more supportive of longer and more ...
12 October 2023

El Nino’s Impact on Winter Storm Losses

With the ongoing El Nino causing so much discussion around how it might impact this summer’s hurricane season (more about that here) – we ...
17 September 2023

Tropical Depression 15’s Europe Threat

The animation shown here is one of 50 forecasts from Saturday 17th run by the ECMWF every 12 hours to help us understand uncertainty in weather ...
13 September 2023

El Nino: Update

In this year’s unique hurricane season, we have a “Battle Royale” between the warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and the developing ...